What happened to Malaysia Airlines flight MH 370?

The Malaysia Airlines 777-200ER that went missing.

I went to cnn.com last night around 8:10 p.m. ET for my evening news update and was shocked to see that a Malaysia Airlines jetliner disappeared in the afternoon (U.S. Eastern Time). Flight MH 370 was en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing and operated on a Boeing 777-200ER.

Quite a few people have asked me since yesterday what I think happened. When you read the following, please keep in mind that I am not a pilot and everything I share here is based on information that is publicly available. So these are just my thoughts.

The first thing that came to my mind was, "Oh god, it's Air France flight 447 all over again!" (AF 447 crashed over the Atlantic in June 2009.) So let's start with that thought. Yes, there are a few similarities with AF 447, but there are important differences as well. What are the similarities? In both cases, a modern two-engine airplane disappeared in-flight, out of the blue, with no distress signals. Both flights were piloted by fairly experienced flight crews. Both planes crashed over the ocean.

However, there are striking differences. The Malaysia Airlines jet was a Boeing 777, which does have fly-by-wire avionics, but - on a 777, in contrast to the Airbus A330, which was used for AF 447 - the pilots can override the system on the 777. So in the case of MH 370, the possibility of a flight computer going bananas and crashing the plane is close to impossible (for AF 447, that was the speculation in the beginning). Another major difference is that MH 370 did not traverse an area of violent weather like the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The weather over the South China Sea was very calm, with no thunderstorms, not even a lot of clouds. So MH 370 did not - like AF 447 - have to maneuver around thunderstorm cells and cumulonimbus clouds. The pilots of MH 370 did not report any severe turbulence. Also, MH 370 did not send any error messages - as AF 447 did - to Boeing or Malaysia Airlines before the crash, so the on-board systems seemed to be working just fine.

So what do we know about MH 370? We know that the flight had reached its cruising altitude of 35,000 feet, which is the safest phase of every flight. It was about 40 minutes into its flight and, until then, no anomalies had been reported. The contact to MH 370 was lost just when it was supposed to make contact with Ho Chi Minh Control Center in Vietnam. According to Chinese sources mentioned in The Aviation Herald, "radar data suggest a steep and sudden descent of the aircraft, during which the track of the aircraft changed from 024 degrees to 333 degrees." This is a pretty significant change in flight direction. Some Tweets last night speculated that MH 370 wanted to turn around or toward land, but I doubt that is true. The same speculations were made for AF 447 back in 2009. I think the turn was already part of the steep descend during the crash and was not controlled.

Now comes the mysterious part, and you can make of this whatever you want - two of the passengers on board MH 370 were traveling with stolen passports. I think we need to be careful what this means. It could just be two people traveling with fake passports, a coincidence. Or it could mean there was something wrong with these two people and there's a relationship to the crash.

Let me be pretty blunt here - a 777 does not just fall out of the sky. Especially not when the flight has reached its cruising altitude. Also, the kerosene traces found on the ocean point to the fact that MH 370 did not explode. It looks like the fuel tanks were intact when the plane hit the ocean (obviously, this is only correct if the oil traces were in fact caused by MH 370). Given all this - no explosion, no error messages, no bad weather - the options of what could have happened are fairly limited. A few people have speculated about a terrorist attack. I think that is highly unlikely as well. Terrorism only works by creating fear and claiming responsibility. So far, no terrorist organization or individuals have claimed responsibility for the crash. So terrorism is really not a realistic scenario here.

But what are realistic scenarios? To me, there are only two possibilities at this point:

1) The two people with the stolen passports were involved. Somehow, they took control of the cockpit and crashed the plane. Maybe they wanted to divert the plane, but the pilots didn't cooperate. They could have removed the pilots from the cockpit (or killed them) and tried to fly the aircraft themselves. As sophisticated as the 777 is, it's close to impossible to fly without experience. A similar scenario would be that one of the pilots wanted to commit suicide. You think this is unrealistic? Then check out this Wikipedia entry.

2) The only other option is that some technical or mechanical failure happened and the pilots were too busy figuring out what was going on to radio mayday or send a distress signal. That was the case with AF 447. If the Chinese reports are true and MH 370 did descend quickly and steeply, that could point to a deep stall, just as what happened with AF 447. All reasons for why this ultra-modern 777 went into a stall, are, however,  pure speculation at this point. There are a thousand things, at least, that can go wrong. However, it is very, very unlikely that one single error or failure caused this crash. It could very well have been a technical/mechanical issue, combined with a serious of misjudgments by the pilots.

I guess the final answer can only be given when the flight and data recorders of MH 370 are found. The only good news is that the water where the plane crashed is not nearly as deep and mountainous as in the Atlantic, where AF 447 went down. And, following all the updates today, it looks like authorities have a pretty good understanding of where to look for the wreck.

To me, this is indeed a very mysterious and disturbing crash. Especially since I'm a big fan of the Boeing 777 and its reliability. We'll soon know who or what was to blame.

New Speculation About American-US Airways Merger

CNN Money just reported that three American Airlines unions support a potential merger with rival US Airways.

To read the full article, please click here. Also watch out for an Aviation Insider blog post this weekend about why this merger may be great news for Airbus.

What's Wrong with JetBlue?

Since its inception more than ten years ago I have been a big fan of JetBlue. Whenever I have the choice of flying JetBlue or another airline, I pick JetBlue. I like the airline's culture, its fleet and its service. It's just fun to "jet" with JetBlue. Their fleet consists of the newest planes in the North American market, operating only A320s and Embraer 190s - two of my favorite aircraft.

However, on a flight from JFK to Vegas last week, at least one person on board flight 191 did not seem to have too much fun - the A320's captain, Clayton Osbon. According to various media reports, the pilot suffered some kind of mental breakdown while flying the A320. According to media reports, first officer Jason Dowd noticed Osbon's weird behavior shortly after take-off. Dowd asked Osbon to leave the cockpit and then locked the door, so the confused pilot could not re-enter. According to CNN, Osbon said "Pray f***ing now for Jesus Christ" and mumbled about Jesus, September 11, Iraq, Iran and terrorists. Eventually, a group of passengers could subdue Osbon and the flight was diverted to Amarillo, Texas. Luckily, there was another JetBlue A320 pilot on board who took over (which would not have been totally necessary, but it's always easier to fly and land a plane with two people in the cockpit).

This is not the first time a JetBlue cabin crew member has acted weird on board one of the airline's planes. Remember the weirdo JetBlue flight attendant at JFK airport in 2010? The one who said "I've been in this business 20 years. And that's it, I'm done!" over the speakers and then activated the emergency slide and left the plane on the tarmac? What is it with JetBlue that encourages its employees to go nuts? Well, honestly, this is not really a JetBlue-only problem. Just recently, an American Airlines flight attendant said funny things about the plane crashing and the 9/11 attacks. Everybody who has been on a Southwest Airlines flight would agree that some of their flight attendants are crazy, but at SWA, it's integrated into their job - they rap over the speaker phones, dance, etc.

We should never forget that pilots and flight attendants are human beings like everyone else. They have personal problems, work long hours and don't really make a lot of money. So let's be realistic - four or five such incidents over the last couple of years are not really that disturbing. I am a bit surprised things like this don't happen more often. Whenever I'm stuck between two 200-kilo people on a plane I want to go crazy. I can't imagine dealing with all these stupid passengers every day.

I don't even think Osbon should go to prison for this. He had a mental breakdown. I really don't think he did this intentionally. I'm not sure he should ever fly a plane again, but this man was ill and he needs treatment, no prison.

CNN: Secrets Pilots Won't Tell You

I was very excited today when I read the headline "Secrets Pilots Won't Tell You" on cnn.com. When I read through the article, I was very disappointed. I expected them to report on how, for example, fly-by-wire technology limits pilots in what they can do, or on poor maintenance or pilot salaries. Some "real" secrets. The secrets CNN mentions, however, are:

1) Pilots are tired and have 16-hour days. Who would have thought? Not a real secret to me! This is especially true for U.S. pilots, not so much for European ones. Is that really scary though? Just think about all the doctors in our hospitals who work 24-hour shifts.

2) Accommodations are bad. Apparently, some U.S. airlines let their pilots sleep in cheap hotels in bad areas. That is indeed something I did not know. But is that really such an important secret? Some pilots may actually live in bad areas or in neighborhoods that are loud. Again, I know that crews from European airlines usually stay at nice hotels.

3) Planes do not carry enough fuel. Well, this is something I would argue with. With fuel being the heaviest "item" on a plane on most flights, of course airlines need to carry as little reserves as possible. This is not a secret, but simple physics. If I fly from Miami to Orlando, I do not need to carry fuel for all the way up to New York with me! Landing a fuel-packed plane is much more dangerous and difficult than landing a light plane with hardly any fuel left.

4) Pilots like compliments about their performance. Really? For god's sake, please do NOT clap when a pilots lands a plane. This is ridiculous. It's his job! Do you applaud a teacher after your English course? Probably not. I do understand clapping after a really challenging landing during strong winds though (and have done it myself).

I think CNN should have titled this piece "U.S. airlines treat their pilots poorly compared to non-U.S. airlines" or something like that. There are no real secrets in this piece. It could have been such a nice article had they focused more on REAL secrets (power of fly-by-wire, flying through strong winds and how modern planes handle that, lightning, etc.). This article is just dull...

Airblue Airbus A321 Crashes in Pakistan

An Airblue Airbus A321 crashed this morning while approaching Islamabad airport in Pakistan. Airblue flight 202 took off from Karachi airport at 7.50 am local time and did not report any troubles until it crashed. The plane was carrying 146 passengers and six crew members.

The A321, registered as AP-BJB, was built in 2000, flew for German charter airline Aero Lloyd before and was delivered to Airblue in 2006. According to CNN, the plane had accumulated about 34,000 flight hours in some 13,500 flights. This is the first crash of an A321 in the history of the plane, which has been manufactured more than 600 times and is a very popular model of Airbus's A320 series.

So far, the reasons for the crash have not been determined. Bad weather has been mentioned several times. According to reports, there was dense fog and heavy rain. In my opinion, this is a bit contradictory - have you ever seen dense fog and heavy rain at the same time? I haven't! Also, eyewitnesses report that the plane "lost balance" before it crashed. I wonder how that happened. The A321 is a fly-by-wire plane and it is pretty much impossible to make it "lose balance." The Airbus's avionics prevent a stall or the loss of lift. What is clear, though, is the fact that the plane crashed into a mountain.

The New York Times reports that the pilot did not follow the air control's instructions. The pilot received a warning that he was flying away from the runway. The pilot responded, “I can see the runway.” In a second exchange, the dispatcher advised, “Immediately turn left, Margalla [Hills] are ahead.” The pilot responded, “we can see it [the runway].” Shortly after, the plane crashed into the mountain.

It looks like this is another crash caused by pilot error. And it shows again that a plane can be state-of-the-art and equipped with great fly-by-wire systems, but it cannot prevent a bad pilot from making a poor or wrong decision. A wrong decision that, in this case, caused the deaths of 152 people.

To read the CNN story, please click here.

To read the New York Times article, please click here.

Again United 777 Hits Severe Turbulence, Injures Passengers

Again, a United 777-200 hit severe turbulence, injuring 30 passengers on Tuesday. The long-haul aircraft was en route from Dulles to Los Angeles when it flew into sudden turbulence over the Rocky Mountains. Flight UA 967 was eventually diverted to Denver, Colorado, where injured people were treated.

The turbulence came out of nowhere, sending items such as laptops flying around the cabin. What flight 967 encountered was so-called mountain wave turbulence, which is very common while flying over mountainous areas. Because of the uneven surface of the Earth in those areas, wind gets diverted up and down quickly, which causes rough air. While it is highly recommended to always wear seat belts on a plane, it is even more recommended to do so while flying over mountains.

To read the CNN story, please click here.

Again Passengers Injured as Jet Hits Severe Turbulence

In general, turbulence is harmless. In 99.9 percent of all cases, nothing happens and nobody is injured. Turbulence to an airplane is pretty much what waves are to a boat - harmless. However, sometimes severe turbulence occurs unexpectedly and then it can cause severe injuries; like today when a United 777 en route from London to LA encountered severe and unexpected turbulence over the Atlantic.

As a matter of fact, only those people who do not have their seat belts fastened suffer injuries whenever planes hit turbulence. When a plane drops (sometimes incorrectly called "air pockets"), they get pulled out of their seats, hit the ceiling and are sometimes even thrown against other passengers. Every year, dozens of people are injured because they don't wear their seat belts while on a plane. So it is extremely important to wear seat belts whenever seated and throughout the entire flight. Even pilots can sometimes not tell if they are about to hit rough air. In contrast to clouds or thunderstorms, wind in clear air (so-called clear-air turbulence) cannot be detected, not even by state-of-the art instruments. You just never know. And exactly that happened on the United flight today. Ten people on board were injured and the Boeing 777-200 had to make an emergency landing in Montreal.

CNN reported that the plane is also being checked for possible damage. This is highly unlikely. Airlines usually do those checks, just to be on the safe side, but turbulence is generally not strong enough to cause real damage to a plane. Planes are built to withstand the worst of all possible circumstances. It is impossible for wind, or even storms, that occur in reality to cause damage to a plane. Damage is, however, caused by people falling around the cabin and hitting the cabin ceiling. For a plane to be allowed to take off again with passengers, this damage needs to be corrected.

To read the CNN story, please click here.

Investigators: Polish Plane Carrying President Crashed Due to Pilot Error

I was not surprised at all to read what the cause of the April 10 crash that killed Polish president Lech Kaczynski was. Apparently, the cockpit crew of the Tu-154 was inexperienced, did not have up-to-date information on the weather in Smolensk, Russia - where the plane crashed - and there were people in the cockpit who were not crew members and who might have urged the pilots to land in dense fog.

CNN reports that air traffic controllers at Smolensk airport warned the crew on two occasions that there was fog at the airport, visibility was just 400 meters, and the conditions did not allow the airport to receive the plane. However, the crew still tried to land four times and crashed on the fourth attempt. Smolensk airport is not equipped with Western-style ILS, making it almost impossible to land there without sufficient visibility.

The reason for flying too low was an axial depression a few hundred meters ahead of the runway. So the plane's altimeter indicated the plane was flying too high for landing at Smolensk and the cockpit crew decided to go lower. When the depression ended, the plane was only a few meters above ground, hitting trees, which eventually caused the crash. It also looks like Andrzej Blasik, commander of the Polish Air Force, was in the cockpit and urged the pilots to land at Smolensk airport despite current fog conditions.

All in all, extremely dumb decisions and an inexperienced cockpit crew caused this crash; not so much the sometimes obsolete Russian aircraft technology.

To read the entire CNN story, please click here.

CNN: A330 Crashed Because of Pilot Error

As I predicted, a pilot error likely caused the crash of an A330 in Tripoli, Libya, on Wednesday. Apparently - and contrary to what had been reported before - the visibility at Tripoli airport was not very good, caused by mist and sand. The pilot turned off the autopilot and tried to land the plane himself (as mentioned before, Tripoli airport is not equipped with ILS), but could not align the Airbus with the runway. He tried to switch on the autopilot again when he noticed he was in trouble. But before the A330 could gain enough thrust to pull up again, the plane crashed into the ground.

This is another example of the poor flying skills of African pilots in general. The continent has been hampered by accidents due to pilot error for a while. The crash of Ethiopian Airlines flight 409 in January off the coast of Lebanon was also caused by pilot error. I can only recommend it again and again - whenever you book a flight, pick an airline whose pilots you trust. Not even a state-of-the-art Airbus equipped with world-class fly-by-wire can save you when your pilot doesn't know how to handle the plane in difficult circumstances.

To read the full CNN story, please click here.

CNN.com - US Airways Applies for Tarmac Delay Exemption

Starting on April 29 of this year there will be a new rule for U.S. passengers stuck on a plane: The Department of Transportation will be able to fine airlines $27,500 per passenger on domestic flights that sit on the tarmac for more than three hours with passengers on board. I absolutely support this new rule and I think there is no excuse for having passengers wait on a plane for such a long time. But sometimes it is not the airlines' fault. Some major airports in the U.S. are just so over-strained that take-off slots get shuffled around and, sometimes, pilots only learn that their take-off time has been delayed when they already left the gate. Going back to the gate is not an option in some cases, since another plane may have taken it already. However, the Department of Transportation allows some airlines to apply for waivers to this new rule if they are based at airports that tend to be congested, such as pretty much all NYC airports. US Airways has filed an application for an exemption to this rule, since its Philadelphia hub is considered part of NYC's airspace.

To read the CNN.com story on US Airways, please click here. To learn more about the new bill, please click here.

CNN.com - Pilots Who Overflew Airport Drop Attempt to Keep Licenses

It's probably the best thing those two morons could do. I mean: How stupid can you be? Flying past your destination because you were watching videos? I don't want people like that to be pilots...

By Mike Ahlers, CNN

March 15, 2010 2:44 p.m. EDT

Washington (CNN) -- The Northwest Airlines pilots who lost their licenses after overflying their Minneapolis destination last year have dropped their appeal, the Federal Aviation Administration said Monday. Continue reading here.