Friday, July 30, 2010

Should Airbus and Boeing Update their Narrowbody Planes or Develop Completely New Aircraft?

It is a hard decision to make. But by the end of this year, Airbus and Boeing will have to make up their minds: Will they update their A320 series and 737 planes with more fuel-efficient engines and add-ons (such as winglets, better wings, etc.) or will they stop investing in those planes and rather pursue the launch of completely new narrowbody aircraft? With rising competition, such as Embraer's E jets and Bombardier's upcoming C series, the two plane manufacturers have to keep up with rising (fuel) efficiencies to remain competitive.

According to reports in Aviation Week, both plane makers are not sure yet, what to do. It almost looks like one is waiting for the other to make the first move. And it is indeed a tricky game. The A320 series and the 737 are already fairly fuel-efficient planes. They can, however, not compete with lighter and, thus, even more fuel efficient models, such as the upcoming Bombardier C series. And with more players in the narrowbody market, it will be harder for Airbus as well as Boeing to stay at the top of the game. Just look at the success of Embraer's E jets - since the launch of the plane in 2002, more than 600 craft of that type have been sold. Hardly anyone would have predicted that.

But what are the options at this point? The idea is to keep the A320 models and the 737 basically as they are, but make some changes so they become more fuel efficient. This means: changing the structure of the wings (to increase lift and reduce weight), use more fuel efficient engines (to be outsourced to third-party manufacturers, such as Rolls Royce or Pratt & Whitney) and add certain fly-by-wire systems (for the 737). This is basically it. The goal is to reduce fuel consumption by 6 to 12 percent.

That was option 1. Option 2 is to not pursue the updates at all but rather come up with completely new narrowbody models. Say, an Airbus A360 or a Boeing 797. Those planes would not be based off of the A320 series or the 737, but engineers at Airbus and Boeing would start from scratch, maybe using completely new light materials, totally different shapes for the fuselages and so on. Obviously, this would be the more time-consuming option and would cost a lot of money. A LOT of money! The question though is: Will airlines want new models at this point? Looking at the orders for the A320 series and the 737, you can argue if there is a need for new models in the short run as both Airbus and Boeing are currently boosting their production rates for the A320 and the 737 to cope with increased demand.

So what should they do? My opinion is that - at this point - there is no need for completely new narrowbody planes. The demand for the A320 planes and the 737 is still there and I am convinced it is a wiser choice to update the current models than to come up with new models. Also, engineers are already swamped with Boeing's 787 and the 747-8, as well as with Airbus's A350. It would be very hard to make time to start new models from scratch right now. Updating current models wouldn't be that much of an effort and is way more efficient at this stage.

I also believe that Boeing should make the first move here (even though they appear to be more reluctant than Airbus). The simple reason is - the technology of the 737 is already outdated. Even the "Next Generation" 737s do not have fly-by-wire (fbw) systems. So just comparing the current models of the 737 with the A320 shows that there is a greater need for an update of the 737 than there is for the A320 aircraft (which all have fbw). Additionally, it has been a better year for the A320 series so far than for the 737. Airlines around the world slightly prefer the A320 over the 737 already, maybe because of its more advanced technology.

As mentioned above though, Boeing seems to be more reluctant to start with the updates of its 737. Experts hypothesize that Boeing is waiting for Airbus to make the next move. If the European aircraft manufacturer announced sometime this year they would start updating the A320 series, then Boeing could just say: Hey, we will not be updating the 737, but come out with a totally new, state-of-the-art plane in 5 years! The rationale is: Why would an airline buy updated versions of the A320 series planes when Boeing is coming out with a brand new, better and even more fuel efficient plane five years later? The hopes are that nobody would order the next-generation A320 planes, but wait for the new Boeing aircraft.

Still, I believe the best thing to do now is update the A320 series and the 737. Airlines haven't really voiced their demand for new narrowbodies yet. With the E jets already on the market, the C series coming out soon and the continued demand for the A320 and the 737, it is just smarter to update current models than create new ones. And if the updated versions are really 6 to 12 percent more fuel efficient, then it will be hard to come up with all-new models that can top this. In my opinion, Airbus and Boeing should listen to what the market wants and I honestly do not see a high demand for all-new narrowbody planes right now.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Great Tour of the A380 Cockpit

I just watched this great video, in which a Lufthansa A380 pilot explains the cockpit of the super jumbo. If you're interested in cockpits and don't mind German accents, then you should watch this!


Airblue Airbus A321 Crashes in Pakistan

An Airblue Airbus A321 crashed this morning while approaching Islamabad airport in Pakistan. Airblue flight 202 took off from Karachi airport at 7.50 am local time and did not report any troubles until it crashed. The plane was carrying 146 passengers and six crew members.

The A321, registered as AP-BJB, was built in 2000, flew for German charter airline Aero Lloyd before and was delivered to Airblue in 2006. According to CNN, the plane had accumulated about 34,000 flight hours in some 13,500 flights. This is the first crash of an A321 in the history of the plane, which has been manufactured more than 600 times and is a very popular model of Airbus's A320 series.

So far, the reasons for the crash have not been determined. Bad weather has been mentioned several times. According to reports, there was dense fog and heavy rain. In my opinion, this is a bit contradictory - have you ever seen dense fog and heavy rain at the same time? I haven't! Also, eyewitnesses report that the plane "lost balance" before it crashed. I wonder how that happened. The A321 is a fly-by-wire plane and it is pretty much impossible to make it "lose balance." The Airbus's avionics prevent a stall or the loss of lift. What is clear, though, is the fact that the plane crashed into a mountain.

The New York Times reports that the pilot did not follow the air control's instructions. The pilot received a warning that he was flying away from the runway. The pilot responded, “I can see the runway.” In a second exchange, the dispatcher advised, “Immediately turn left, Margalla [Hills] are ahead.” The pilot responded, “we can see it [the runway].” Shortly after, the plane crashed into the mountain.

It looks like this is another crash caused by pilot error. And it shows again that a plane can be state-of-the-art and equipped with great fly-by-wire systems, but it cannot prevent a bad pilot from making a poor or wrong decision. A wrong decision that, in this case, caused the deaths of 152 people.

To read the CNN story, please click here.

To read the New York Times article, please click here.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Lufthansa Cargo MD-11 Crash-Lands in Riyadh

I was shocked this morning to read that a Lufthansa Cargo MD-11 crash-landed in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, earlier today.

The pilot of Lufthansa Cargo flight LH8460 reported a fire in the cargo bay of the McDonnell Douglas MD-11 as he approached King Khaled International Airport in Riyadh. Witnesses report black smoke coming from the plane prior to touch down. The plane was scheduled to continue to Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates after leaving Riyadh. At the time of the crash it was carrying 80 tons of freight. Both, the pilot and the co-pilot survived and were brought to a hospital. Both are in "good" condition. There have been no deaths caused by the crash.

In the history of Lufthansa Cargo, this is the first accident that totally destroyed a plane. At this point, pilot error can be ruled out as the cause and the cause of the fire will have to be determined. Over the last year and a half, three MD-11s were totally destroyed in accidents, all of them freighters.

To read the Bloomberg piece, please click here.

Airbus Expects U.S. Order in Coming Days

Reuters yesterday quoted Airbus's CEO Tom Enders saying in a German newspaper that the European aircraft manufacturer expects a significant order by a U.S. airlines in the next couple of days. According to Enders, the order will be for 20 to 30 new aircraft. Enders, however, did not give any specifics on which airline the planes will be for and which types will be ordered.

I have been thinking about this a lot and there are a couple of airlines that can easily be dismissed because of several reasons: Continental (all-Boeing fleet), American (all-Boeing fleet), United (unlikely to order planes at this point, due to merger with Continental), JetBlue (already has several Airbus planes on order and pushed back on deliveries lately). So my best guess is US Airways and I think the orders will be either for the A320 series or Airbus's brand-new A350.

To read the German piece in BILD, please click here.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Virgin America Orders 40 Airbus A320

It has been a great Farnborough air show for Airbus so far and the orders just keep coming in. Virgin America today announced it will add 40 Airbus A320s to its fleet. The list price for the planes is around $81 million, but Virgin probably got a decent discount.

The U.S. airline, which is partly owned by UK billionaire Richard Branson, has an Airbus-only fleet and, at this point, only serves cities in the U.S. from its California hubs Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego. With the additional aircraft, Virgin Atlantic is planning to extend its routes. New destinations in the U.S. will likely be Austin, Chicago and Dallas. The airline also plans on flying to its first ex-U.S. destinations by year's end. Those international destinations will likely be Cancun and San Jose del Cabo, both in Mexico.

To read the Bloomberg piece, please click here.

Again United 777 Hits Severe Turbulence, Injures Passengers

Again, a United 777-200 hit severe turbulence, injuring 30 passengers on Tuesday. The long-haul aircraft was en route from Dulles to Los Angeles when it flew into sudden turbulence over the Rocky Mountains. Flight UA 967 was eventually diverted to Denver, Colorado, where injured people were treated.

The turbulence came out of nowhere, sending items such as laptops flying around the cabin. What flight 967 encountered was so-called mountain wave turbulence, which is very common while flying over mountainous areas. Because of the uneven surface of the Earth in those areas, wind gets diverted up and down quickly, which causes rough air. While it is highly recommended to always wear seat belts on a plane, it is even more recommended to do so while flying over mountains.

To read the CNN story, please click here.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

AF A380 Missed Approach JFK

And another nice video of a missed approach at JFK. I wonder why? The A380 almost touched down on the runway already. Oh, and I just love the sound of the A380's flaps being retracted. So futuristic...

Beautiful Thunderstorm Take-Off

I just saw this beautiful video of take-off in a thunderstorm. Wow! It's quite astonishing what planes can endure...


Monday, July 19, 2010

Further Delays with Boeing's 747-8

Boeing appears to be focusing all its attention on the rollout of its 787. Originally they planned to present a first version of the 747-8 at this year's Farnborough Air Show. But all those excited to see the 747-8 live will be disappointed. The 747-8 did not make it across the Atlantic. And it doesn't look like it will happen anytime soon.

For the fourth time, Boeing had to announce delays with its 747-8 program. Right now it looks like the updated jumbo jet will not be delivered to the first customer until next year. Apparently, Boeing does not have enough capacity to work on too many projects at the same time. The 787 has been a huge success so far while the 747-8 has been, well, more of a disappointment. Only three airlines have ordered the passenger version so far. In addition, Boeing will have to make urgent decisions on what to do with its 737. Will they redesign it, adding more efficient engines, or start developing a brand new single-aisle plane? Airbus is in a similar situation - the European plane maker will need to decide soon on whether it wants to revamp the A320 series or come up with a completely new plane. The competition is set to steal some thunder here - just look at Embraer's E series or Bombardier's C series...

To read more about Boeing's current problems, please read this Bloomberg piece.

British Airways Orders 24 Boeing 787

More aircraft-order news have come out of this year's Farnborough Air Show. British Airways yesterday announced an order of 24 Boeing 787, with deliveries starting as early as next year.

The 787s will be used to replace BA's fleet of Boeing 767s. Experts have been curious about BA's next move, considering the limited capacity at the airline's home base at Heathrow airport. BA has mentioned in the past that it is also considering buying more Airbus A380s (the airline already ordered 12 super jumbos) to use its slots at Heathrow more efficiently and to replace the airline's huge but aging 747-400 fleet.

Boeing's "Dreamliner" made a first appearance in Europe at the air show over the weekend. Europe has not been a great market for the 787 yet and Boeing is trying to boost orders at the show.

To read more about BA's 787 order, please click here.

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Emirates to Order 20 More 777s

A bit more than a month ago Dubai-based Emirates ordered 32 additional A380s and everybody thought "Wow, what are they going to do with all those planes???". Today, Reuters reports that Emirates is about to order an additional 20 Boeing 777-300. Already the largest airlines in the Arab world, Emirates is set to become the largest airline in Asia if they continue to grow with this speed.

The order could be a key feature of the opening day of the July 19-25 Farnborough air show in England on Monday, when the Dubai-based airline is expecteded to hold a news conference.

To read the Reuters story, please click here.

Alitalia Takes Delivery of First A330-200

I have to admit, I am not the biggest fan of Alitalia, Italy's flagship carrier. I have been on five Alitalia flights in my life and they were absolute average. Service was okay (on a flight from EWR to Rome, all flight attendants completely disappeared for three hours), the planes were fairly old (the 767-300 that I was on to and from Dubai looked older than pretty much every plane I have ever been on) and the prices were not really cheap. So far, I would not have really recommended Alitalia to anyone.

However, Alitalia has made some pretty good decisions lately when it comes to the long-haul aircraft they ordered. Alitalia has placed an order for 12 Airbus A330-200 and another order for 12 A350-800. On July 15, Alitalia received its first A330-200, which will replace the airline's 767-300s. At this point, Alitalia does not have any outstanding orders with Boeing and it looks like the A350s will be used to replace Alitalia's 777-200s. Alitalia looks set to become an airline with an Airbus-only fleet soon. Italy's largest airlines is also currently replacing its MD-82s with aircraft of the A320 series. Maybe I should give Alitalia another chance...

To read the Airbus press release, please click here.